1. See Alexis de Tocqueville’s Recollections (1987) and Old Regime and the French Revo-
lution (1955). See also Raymond Aron’s (1968) interesting interpretation of Tocque-
ville’s attitude toward revolution. For recent treatments of the di≈culties of predict-
ing revolutions, see Goldstone 1993; Kuran 1995; Collins 1995; Tilly 2001.
2. For historical accounts of German revolution and reunification, see Jarausch 1994;
Zelikow and Rice 1995; Maier 1997; Lindner 1998; Zwahr 1991. Excellent studies of the
history of the GDR and East German Communism are found in Staritz 1985; Weber
1999, 2000; Weitz 1997; Ross 2000, 2002; Fulbrook 1995; Meuschel 1992; Mitter and
3. For a clear statement on the methods of process tracing, see Goldstone 1997.
4. In 1988 Leipzig was the GDR’s second city, with a population of about 550,000
inhabitants. It was a manufacturing center and the administrative seat of a regional
district. See ‘‘Zahlen und Fakten zur Verwirklichung der Politik zum Wohle des
Volkes in der Stadt Leipzig,’’ September 1988, Archiv Bürgerbewegung e.V., Stadt-
geschichtliches Museum Leipzig (abl) h15. Also compare the Leipzig district with
the rest of the GDR in sjddr 1990.
1. The comparisons are based on the depiction of each case in the case-specific second-
ary literature. For Czechoslovakia, see Garton Ash 1990; Judt 1992; Wheaton and
Kavan 1992; Glenn 1999, 2001; Saxonberg 2001. For Poland, see Osa 2003; Ost 1990;
Garton Ash 1993; Fehr 1992; Ekiert 1996, 1997; Goldfarb 1991; Touraine et al. 1983. For
Hungary, see Bruszt 1990; Bruszt and Stark 1992; Arato 1994; Agocs 1993; Szabo 1994;
Szelenyi and Szelenyi 1994. For Romania, see Chirot 1978, 1994; Jowitt 1991; Verdery
1996; Bachman 1991. For the People’s Republic of China, see Lin 1992; Calhoun 1994;
Guthrie 1995; Zhao 2001.
2. The GDR experienced the collapse of a Communist regime based on the political
monopoly of the Leninist party, the Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands (sed),
which had emerged after World War II as the forced union of Social Democrats and
Communists in the Soviet Occupied Zone. The sed became incapable of rule and